A look ahead

With project management gaining in importance across all businesses and industries, Julian Smith looks at its future.

Einstein, rather like a mystic, left us with many pithy observations, often scribbled down by journalists. He is said to have suggested that there are three rules of work: “Out of clutter find simplicity; from discord find harmony; in the middle of difficulty lies opportunity.”

Making sense in a changing world and finding opportunities in the midst of upheaval will be familiar to project professionals, who are, after all, in the change business. For APM, as we serve the profession, there is a need from time to time to consider what forces are buffeting project management, and what we can do to help our members succeed.

We determined to revise our strategy this year, using a simple and harmonious process as far as possible. We have scanned the horizon, developed our thoughts and put them to members and outside interests in order to improve and validate them. This is expected to conclude in November.

We start from the premise that delivery of change through projects is a key driver of any modern economy. A recent study from the German Project Management Association indicates that almost 40 per cent of Germany’s GDP is delivered via projects. Change through projects is a driver of jobs, economic growth, quality of life, sustainability and security.

Project management has grown hugely in ambition and importance. In coming years, the scope for growth is significant indeed. The Project Management Institute has estimated that the size of the global project industry will reach $6.6 trillion by 2020 – and 15.7 million more project management roles will be created globally.

The burden of expectation on project professionals has increased. Clients presume that projects will be done better than ‘well’ and that project professionals should be trusted to deliver. At the same time, society demands greater efficiency, transparency and accountability. Add in political interference, short-termism and increasingly complex governance arrangements, and perhaps it is hard to find the simplicity in the clutter – or, indeed, harmony among the discord.

Some challenges relate to the project environment. Project professionals depend on the behaviours of others in delivering outcomes. Many projects are now more international in their delivery or use of supply chains. Practitioners need to be able to manage differing norms of behaviour.

Projects have many parts. This reduces professionals’ ability to determine how their projects will behave. There are more transformation projects, which can be inherently difficult to deliver. In projects outside of the traditional construction, engineering and IT sectors, success often goes beyond delivery to time, cost and quality, as well as societal benefits and intangible deliverables.

Some challenges relate to the capacity and capability of the profession. Project professionals have access to tools and techniques, but too often cannot use them fully. These tools and techniques have generally been developed in IT and capital-delivery projects. They are, arguably, insufficient for transformation projects.

Project management is more widely recognised as a desirable profession, but project management skills at all levels are still in short supply, and the accepted level of professionalism is arguably too low.

One example of imminent future change is machine learning and automation. The robots are coming, and there are reasons to be concerned. Automation has (so far) impacted mostly blue-collar employment, but the coming wave threatens to upend white-collar work. Certain highly skilled workers will succeed in this new environment – but far more may be displaced into lower-paying jobs or even unemployment. Our education system is not adequately preparing us for the work of the future, and our political and economic institutions are poorly equipped to handle hard choices.

Conversely, there are reasons to be hopeful – to seize, as Einstein put it, the opportunity in the middle of difficulty.

Advances in technology have historically been a net creator of jobs. We will adapt by inventing new types of work, and by taking advantage of uniquely human capabilities. Technology will allow us to define our relationship with work in a more positive, socially beneficial way. We can, to a point, control our own destiny.

So we can find solace in what Einstein said. Project management is expanding. It is infiltrating more industry sectors and becoming even more global. More people are waking up to the potential of a career in projects. And APM is looking to adapt and update, so more and more professionals and their organisations will find us supportive, useful and relevant.

All APM members have received a survey asking for their input into APM’s strategy refresh. Comments on this article are welcome at julian.smith@apm.org.uk.

Julian Smith is head of external affairs at APM.